Cycles of computing

In the world of computing, I have observed an interesting trend in last 2 decades. I thought it might be useful to put it out in writing and others might get some other thoughts around it.

Technology follows cycles, and things eventually travel full circle like a fly sitting on a bicycle wheel.

Let’s take an example of technological growth in any area of computation.

• We build a technology around resource limitations
• Once resource limitations are hit, we attempt to pool resources to solve the problem of resource limitation
• Consequence of centralization crop in or moore’s law is held up and we get more power
• They again pushed technology to devices as more power is available and enhancements creep in.
• circle back to point 1

Now this seems overtly simplistic, so I have been thinking about some examples

Example: voice translation

1. limited capability tools developed: dragon natural speak, etc
2. centralized systems took over: siri, ok google, etc
3. voices against centralized power and increase in CPU capability at mobile happened
4. voice translation service now pushed to local systems
5. more advanced in computing with an aim to push / test the limits ongoing.

Apple m1 is doing that, mobile computing chips doing the same.

Example: web technologies

1. Thin clients connected terminal central server doing everything.
2. limitation hit and PC became affordable computing shifted to local.
3. Central setups and need to do complex calculation led to server client web 1.0
4. web 2.0 saw things moving back to client side coz cpus became better
5. chrome came and started using more of GPU and CPU and enhanced JavaScript on client side.
6. now peak limits hit orgs like mighty are pushing computing to cloud again via mighty app or similar.

Example: cryptocurrencies & web3.0

1. Central authorities had too much power people wanted things to move out of central authority hands. They envisioned bitcoin as an illegal or not allowed and noncentrally controlled currency where the value of the coin will be decided by the two parties doing the deal. A utopian dream come true: all have their own stuff and can decide pricing (remember barter system anyone).
2. bitcoin was OSS and just like other OSS forks started building once a divergent thought came in the directions
3. litecoin, name coin to name a few, Dogecoin was create to mock the whole cryptocurrency fad.
4. we even saw bitcoin being forked for 10s of variations.
5. Ethereum came and tried to do some innovation. We have forks of that too.
6. Meanwhile, the large number of people started gathering around the movement and worked on the financial side and trading side of equation.
7. Trading needed some sort of governance coz rapid trading needed people to trust each other. We can build trust via platforms.
8. Trusted platform means huge transactions and lots of transactions means lots of money wasted in transaction fees. As price rise transaction feels becomes prohibitive.
9. Hence, the system of exchanges and off chain transactions started and crypto exchanges took central place.
10. From fully de-centralized concept, we moved to fully centralized exchanges, which ultimately reward people to keep money in exchanges. I am assuming this will again flip in a few years where people keep things in their own hands rather than at exchanges.

That’s it for today. I will post more such observations as I get more time. Subscribe if you like this style of writing and thoughts will encourage me to share more.

Also, share your own thoughts and observations around such trends in comments below👇